A few words on the generic Congressional ballot

I came across an article on the Financial Times website talking about how getting rid of authoritarian populists like Trump was easier than getting rid of the mindset. The article's author then threw in, as proof, that the GOP was two points ahead in polling and if that held it would translate to a solid majority for them.

Well. I decided to peruse FiveThirtyEight. And this is what I saw:

Now. We can dispense with Rasmussen. It is a propaganda arm of the GOP, and nothing more. And yet, polling aggregators still treat it as a reputable firm, which pulls down the average for Democrats. If we exclude them, only two of the past nine polls tracked by Nate Silver show the GOP ahead. All the other polls show a Democratic lead, with one poll showing both sides level.

Rasmussen's polling puts the thumb on the scale in favor of the Republicans. The problems with its polling have been legion, and reported on ad nauseam. As you see, it's GOP +8 is wildly out of synch with the other recent polling.

Does this mean that the Democrats have the election in the bag? Of course not. Most analysts point to a close race. But exclude Rasmussen, and the polling averages would show Democrats with a slight lead. 

However, this is not good for business. And by "business" I mean our media-industrial complex, which exists solely to drive eyeballs to advertisers. On the right they do this by ginning up outrage and selling that a red wave is soon to crash on these shores. In the mainstream media it's done by ginning up fear to keep frightened viewers riveted. 

Outlier polling is given more consideration because it's exciting. It drives a narrative of chaos and uncertainty. It gives the yakkers something to fill up the twenty-four hours with. But it may not accurately reflect reality.

But reality isn't the point, is it? We're in a postmodern, Derrida universe where reality is subjective, and nothing can be known with any certainty, like Kellyanne Conway's "alternative facts", or Karl Rove bragging that he creates his own reality. This is what we're facing: a loss of commonly accepted truths which undergird our civilization. Conspiracy theories which were handed out on mimeograph paper in airport terminals now fly around the world in two seconds. Truth and reality are fungible. And people like Silver reflect this in their work. 

Of course, this is nothing new. This is propaganda gussied up for our latter days. But this propaganda is much more effective now, as it doesn't come from just one source, but is diffused across a web of sources. In school I was taught to confirm a statement with other sources; well, that's what people are doing now. The problem is that the sources which they use to confirm their beliefs are as blinkered as the original author. 

Rasmussen has polling which is regularly an outlier? Well, who's to say they're not right? Throw them into the soup. Our media is so afraid of being wrong, or of being seen to be partisan, that it gives bad actors purchase. It's no longer the gatekeeper; it's opened the floodgates to all sorts of cranks, because in that soup is where "truth" is found. Whose truth? Well, we don't know yet. But it will be exciting!

Democrats don't have it in the bag. But neither are they facing a wipeout. Just keep that in mind when you feel despondent. We have work to do.